Spanish exit polls. Sampling error or nonresponse bias?

Survey Participation, Nonresponse Bias, Measurement Error Bias, and Total Bias

A common hypothesis about practices to reduce survey nonresponse is that those persons brought into the respondent pool through persuasive efforts may provide data filled with measurement error. Two questions flow from this hypothesis. First, does the mean square error of a statistic increase when sample persons who are less likely to be contacted or cooperate are incorporated into the responde...

Optimistic Mixing for Exit-Polls

We propose a new mix network that is optimized to produce a correct output very fast when all mix servers execute the mixing protocol correctly (the usual case). Our mix network only produces an output if no server cheats. However, in the rare case when one or several mix servers cheat, we convert the inputs to a format that allows “back-up” mixing. This back-up mixing can be implemented using ...

Exit Polls and Voter Turnout

We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are a¤ected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We …nd that the introduction of an exit poll in‡uences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the sign of the e¤ect is generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls in‡uence the incentiv...

Assessing Nonresponse Bias and Measurement Error Using Statistical Matching

The estimation of nonresponse bias and measurement error share the problem of usually not having a criterion to assess the quality of the estimate. Nonresponse bias analysis often uses responders within the survey sample who are in some way similar to nonresponders to estimate the potential bias. This depends on the variables within the survey being related to both the likelihood of responding ...

Nutcracker, neurosis, or sampling bias?